MTFFL

I had lunch with Will & Michelle Gordy and Jonathan Smallwood today. As we were watching the games and commiserating about our fantasy teams, the topic came up about how many points do you need to feel good about your weekly total. So my nerd brain went into action.

Below is a list of all games (both leagues) and the outcomes. If you score 160 points, you have an 85.58% chance of winning. Only twice (each once in both leagues - in 2004) has both teams scored over 200 points.

score wins losses chance of winning
160 178 1056 85.58%
165 104 875 89.38%
170 61 699 91.97%
175 36 557 93.93%
180 23 425 94.87%
185 15 315 95.45%
190 13 247 95.00%
195 4 177 97.79%
200 2 126 98.44%

I think I guessed around 82% winning percentage yesterday for 160+.

160 is where i'd like my team to be every week.... always thought that gave me a very good chance to win. 85% is even better than i was thinking.

I am no mathmatician by far but I blindly with a 95% certainy would have said 160 would be about 80 to 85 on the inverse 120 about 80% chance of losing. Just a guess. It is those middle 40 pts and who you play determine the rest. The old baseball saying says no mater how good you are you will lose 33% and no matter how bad you are you will win 33% it is that middle 33 that tells the story.